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ETF Hedge Fund

Stocks · Started Oct 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.4%
Max Drawdown
27.3%
Trades
33
Win Trades
24.2%
Profit Factor
0.10
Win Months
0.6%

About this strategy

Takes a hedge fund like approach by holding both long and short positions in various uncorrelated asset classes -- stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real-estate -- using popular exchange-traded funds.

Buy and Sell signals are delivered by 6:00 am eastern time on any given trading day. Diversification (holding different assets) and Flexibility (trading both long and short) are the key to investment success in all market environments.

Hedge funds are an elusive form of investing that is often misunderstood by the general public. Historically, people who solicited large sums of money from already rich people and exploited the market to make even more money ran hedge funds.

But now you can take advantage of the hedge fund approach which is designed to continue making profits in both bull and bear markets.

The ETF Hedge Fund system uses advanced trend-following techniques and strives to always stay in sync with the underlying trend, whether long or short.

A margin account is required for trading this system. Since we don't trade very often, you can chose to employ either manual or automated trading.

Unlike a lot of other systems, all the Buys and Sells conveniently take place at market open. This eliminates the need to constantly monitor your e-mail during the day.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-3.2-15.82.4-16.5
2012-2.0-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.3
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.30.00.00.00.0-0.3
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/2/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age183 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades33
# Profitable8
% Profitable24.2%
Avg trade duration25.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.3%
drawdown periodOct 03, 2011 - Dec 08, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.4%
Avg win$273
Avg loss$774

Ratios

W:L ratio0.08
Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Sortino Ratio-0.71
Calmar Ratio-0.23

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life577.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-609.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss6.7%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)—

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$774
Avg Win$273
# Winners8
Sum Trade PL (losers)$19,341
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,182
Num Months Winners3
# Losers25
% Winners24.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-601

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table181

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)36732.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)612.21
Avg Trade Length25.50
Last Trade Ago5395

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.87

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.29
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.56
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats25
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.10
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.78

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.09
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.14
df36
t-2.05
p0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.01
Sortino ratio-1.12
Upside Potential Ratio0.04
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms36
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error35
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.66
t(a)-1.41
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.53
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
Mean-0.09
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.12
df36
t-2.01
p0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.02
Sortino ratio-1.10
Upside Potential Ratio0.04
Upside part of mean0.00
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms1
N negative terms36
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error35
t(b)-0.44
p(b)0.67
t(a)-1.38
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)3.94
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.08
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.70
df808
t-1.23
p0.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Sortino ratio-1.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.37
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms781
N of observations809
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error807
t(b)1.04
p(b)0.15
t(a)-1.35
p(a)0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.09
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.77
df808
t-1.35
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.35
Sortino ratio-1.07
Upside Potential Ratio1.28
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms781
N of observations809
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error807
t(b)1.05
p(b)0.15
t(a)-1.46
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.75
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6816489982132224
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.57167069072051e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations809
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high29
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.18
Quartile 10.18
Median0.18
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.27
Quartile 10.27
Median0.27
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440326848
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)66
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.01
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EDV long72Nov 18, 2011Jan 3, 2012($155)
DBA short304Nov 17, 2011Jan 3, 2012$192
XLF short700Nov 21, 2011Jan 3, 2012($719)
EZU short320Nov 17, 2011Jan 3, 2012($28)
PBW short1600Nov 18, 2011Jan 3, 2012$523
HYG short105Nov 17, 2011Jan 3, 2012($350)
IEV short270Nov 23, 2011Jan 3, 2012($807)
DBB short518Oct 18, 2011Jan 3, 2012$130
VSS short110Nov 17, 2011Jan 3, 2012$387
XME short190Nov 25, 2011Nov 30, 2011($1,340)
XLI long292Oct 25, 2011Nov 25, 2011($526)
XLK long400Oct 12, 2011Nov 23, 2011($380)
XLE long148Oct 19, 2011Nov 23, 2011($272)
VNQ long157Nov 3, 2011Nov 21, 2011($548)
XME long171Oct 28, 2011Nov 21, 2011($1,480)
RSX long315Oct 27, 2011Nov 21, 2011($1,206)
XLY long257Oct 17, 2011Nov 21, 2011($290)
EPP long225Oct 27, 2011Nov 18, 2011($907)
XLF long740Oct 24, 2011Nov 18, 2011($479)
EZU long337Oct 12, 2011Nov 16, 2011($627)
EDV short84Oct 27, 2011Nov 7, 2011($604)
PBW short1757Oct 18, 2011Nov 4, 2011($655)
SLV short330Oct 20, 2011Nov 3, 2011($1,271)
VXX short4Oct 27, 2011Nov 1, 2011($2,148)
EDV long615Oct 18, 2011Oct 24, 2011($1,820)
RSX short360Oct 18, 2011Oct 24, 2011($533)
DBP long175Oct 6, 2011Oct 20, 2011($135)
RSX short360Oct 13, 2011Oct 17, 2011($234)
TNA long600Oct 5, 2011Oct 7, 2011$826
VXX long2Oct 4, 2011Oct 4, 2011$32

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.